What is the biggest concern in 2020? That is the novel coronavirus. The resulting social phenomena continue to refresh our perceptions: the increased risk of economic downturn, crazy buying of the medical mask, repeated lax prevention and control and so on. As a concerned person close to the epidemic (less than 200Km from Wuhan), after consulting at least 50 copies of the information, to talk little personal feelings about the epidemic, hope to help everyone.
- The severity of the global novel coronavirus epidemic exceeds most people’s expectations
- Current situation of novel coronavirus epidemic
- What is the probability of the global spread of novel coronavirus?
- How many gaps in the mask | mask making machine in the case of novel coronavirus epidemic?
- Supply-and-demand analysis in China
- Supply-and-demand analysis outside China
- Mask | mask making machine: The key to fight the Epidemic
- In China, the demand for the current market of masks and mask making machines exceeds the supply. The market conditions are as follows:
- Are they all crazy?
1 The severity of the global novel coronavirus epidemic exceeds most people’s expectations
1.1 Current situation of novel coronavirus epidemic
1.2 What is the probability of the global spread of novel coronavirus?
Figure 1.2.1: Comparative table of data on the epidemic situation in China and abroad:
However, the abroad did not pay attention, from February 21st to 23rd (yellow section of the table), the epidemic spread faster, but no country really pay attention to it, at that time, many countries, including South Korea, Italy and other countries did not recommend people to wear medical masks, and the government did not take any measures, so missed a best period of prevention and control. Since March 2nd (red part), the abroad epidemic has entered the climbing stage, the number of infected people has risen rapidly, and the epidemic has spread from abroad to China, the epidemic spread globally quickly.
Figure 1.2.2: Global infection region
2 How many gaps in the mask | mask making machine in the case of novel coronavirus epidemic?
2.1 Supply–and-demand analysis in Europe
China has 1400 million people and needs about 920 million masks one day.
Of these, 533 million staff and 276 million students. If work and start school completely, one person uses one mask per day, there needs about 800 million masks per day. Another 600 million people live in homes, five-person use one mask per day, there need about 120 million one day.
Notice: Medical staff use at least two masks or more a day.
Chart 2.1: Supply and demand for masks and mask making machine in China
|Daily production of masks||demand for masks||Daily gap of masks|
|From the normal 20 million
to the current 120 million
|920 million||700 million|
|Mask making machine number||Demand for mask making machine||The gap of mask making machine|
|About 1200~1500||9000~11000||About 8000~10000|
Because of the serious mask shortage, until the beginning of March, most schools in China were closed and a considerable number of enterprises have not been able to start work normally, which has seriously affected the normal operation of the Chinese economy.
2.2 Supply–and-demand analysis outside China
Based on 18 countries (South Korea, Italy, Iran, Japan, etc.) with more than 50 infections, it affects about 900 million population. According to the annual textile industry data: as the core material for the masks production, meltblown fabric, China accounts for about half of its capacity. As a “world factory” in DongGuan, GuangDong, is also the main production site of mask making machine. Now China’s own needs can not be met, let alone other countries?
Take the United States, which has about 330 million people. The U.S. Department – HHS says the U.S. has only 40 million N95 and medical surgical masks in stock, and if the epidemic is serious, only medical personnel will need 300 million masks, with a gap of 3500 million for the whole population, while the existing capacity and quantity of the United States are far from enough.
As I forecast above, if the global epidemic continues for another three months or more, then the world must unite, use all available resources, and truly establish a global joint defense policy in order to win the battle as soon as possible.
3 Mask | mask making machine: The key to fight the Epidemic
Note: All of these are denominated in CNY and can be converted into USD based on the exchange rate of USD/CNY.
3.1 In China, the demand for the current market of masks and mask making machines exceeds the supply. The market conditions are as follows:
|Related goods||Price on Jan. 20th||Current market prices||Price increases|
|Medical mask||0.5 CNY/one||5 CNY – 10 CNY||10 – 20 times|
|200,000 /one||650,000, 15~20 days delivery
(550,000~600,000), 30 days delivery
Spot goods, 800,000 ~ 1400,000
|3 – 8 times|
|meltblown fabric||20,000 /one ton||250,000– 300,000 /one ton||12 – 15 times|
Take the medical mask making machine as an example, it’s like the condition when people bought a house ten years ago.
|Date||The Market of Mask Making Machine|
|Jan.20th||Chinese Spring Festival, the mask was snapped up, the mask making machine cost 200 000, few people think of investing|
|Feb.10th||Start work, the mask making machine has only a small stock, price 300,000, but most people are hesitant to wait and see, few people book the mask making machine 20~30 days later|
|Feb.25th||A lot of manufacturers start to pay the order, the price is about 450,000, 25~30 days delivery|
|Mar.1st~Mar.4th||New machines unbooked were snapped up by 800,000~1400,000, and more manufacturers spend 550,000~600,000 to book mask making machine 30~35 days delivery|
|Mar.5t~nowadays||Price 650,000 for mask making machine 15~20 days delivery,
550,000~600，000 for mask making machine 30 days delivery
3.2 Are they all crazy?
3.2.1 Taking the disposable medical masks as an example, how to calculate the return on its input by buying a mask making machine and non-woven fabrics?
|Material preparation||Invested funds|
|Mask making machine||550,000～650,000 / one|
|Meltblown nonwovens||250,000～300,000 / one ton|
|Spunbond nonwovens||About 30,000 / one ton|
|Accessories, labour, etc.||About 1000 / 24H|
Income returns = Income from masks – Cost of mask making machine – cloth cost – Labor cost, parts cost, etc.
The following is the key: (the following knowledge has a certain degree of professionalism, if you don’t understand, leave me a message.)
Taking the disposable three-layer medical mask as an example, the size of the mask is about 18cm*18cm, the area is about 324cm2, and the gram scale weight of each layer is calculated by 30g/m2. What is gram scale weight, how to measure it?
With “324cm2 * 30g/m2“, it can be calculated that each mask needs about 0.972g melt-blown nonwovens and 1.942g spunbond nonwovens.
With “1ton / 0.972g” it can be calculated that 1 ton meltblown nonwoven combined with 2 tons spunbond nonwoven (why? because the inside and outside of the mask are spunbond nonwoven, only the middle layer is meltblown nonwoven), which can produce 1 million masks.
The actual output of a fully automatic mask making machine is about 80~90pcs/min, considering the problem of changing materials and proficiency problems, every 24H it can produce about 100,000 masks, is one-tenth of 1 million, use 0.1 tons of melt-blown non-woven and 0.2 tons of spunbond non-woven.
With 24H as the cycle, ￥5 ($0.714) per mask, the income of the mask: 5*100,000=500,000.
Labor cost, parts cost: about ￥1000, melt-blown non-woven fabric costs: ￥25000~30000, spun-bond non-woven fabric costs: ￥6000
24H revenue: 500,000 – 1,000 – 30,000 – 6,000 = ￥423,000, that is to say, an automatic mask making machine, if continuous production, it can recover the cost up to 2 days. So the market is “crazy “.
3.2.2 Part state subsidizes the mask manufacturers and acquires disposable makes.
The epidemic will continue for at least three months, and the medical mask gap is huge, so don’t worry about selling it. And some countries are now subsidizing mask manufacturers and acquire disposable makes to control the epidemic better.
However, the market is not as simple as the math problem above, which also involves the purchase link problem, medical mask medical machine